Tendring Topics……..on line
Tendring Topics……..on line
The tragedy of Ukraine
Regular
blog readers will know that I have a personal concern about the conflict in
Eastern Ukraine because of the thought that those engaged on both sides in that
conflict may be that grandchildren of the Russian and Ukrainian conscripted
‘slave workers’ who were my good friends and comrades in Germany from 1943 till
1945 when I was an ‘other rank’ British POW also compelled to work there.
I
was delighted when the political leaders of France and Germany, having had
talks with the President of the Kiev Ukrainian government, discussed with
Vladimir Putin, the Russian President, their plans for an immediate cease-fire
leading to a permanent peace I had hoped
that these talks would be successful though I was not convinced that either the
Ukrainian President had absolute control of the government forces (there are, I
believe, a number of private ‘militia’ groups supporting the Kiev government) or Vladimir Putin control of the rebels..
There
have now been over 5,000 fatal casualties in this unnecessary civil war. Although we don’t know who these casualties
are I’d be very surprised if the majority of them are not civilians and victims
of the relentless shelling by the government forces of towns and villages under
rebel control. Certainly most of the
thousands of refugees whose homes have
been destroyed and who are seeking refuge in Russia , are from rebel-held areas
under constant attack.
It wasn’t really surprising that that first
peace initiative failed. It was never likely that an agreement that had been
welcomed by the Ukrainian President could possibly be immediately acceptable to
the rebels. Both sides needed to
compromise if there were to be a lasting cease-fire. A few weeks ago there had been hope as the prisoner
of war exchange agreed in Minsk
in September took place. Since then the
fighting has flared up again. It is
assumed by our press and the BBC that the rebels were responsible – but were
they? It really does take two to make a
quarrel – or a war.
After
the failure of the German and French peace initiative, hopes of a cease-fire
flickered but were not totally extinguished.
Fortunately, neither Angela Merkel or her French counterpart were
prepared to take ‘no’ for an answer.
They arranged a meeting on 11th February, this time with both
Vladimir Putin and Barak Obama, Presidents of the Russian
Federation and of the USA , taking part. Once again there
were no representatives of Russian speaking East Ukraine
present. This was not because no
representative of the rebels was prepared to come, nor yet because President
Putin had advised them against coming; but simply because the representatives
of the Kiev
government refused to speak to them!
It must have
been a strange peace conference that barred one of the combatants from
participation. However it permitted the Kiev government to persist in the fiction that the rebels
were under the direct command of Russia , and effectively prevented
them from publicising their reasons for armed resistance to a government
take-over.
Discussions
went on throughout the night. With the
dawn came news of a hard-won agreement that German Chancellor Angela Merkel
said gave ‘just a glimmer’ of hope. There is to be a complete cease-fire
effective from midnight on Saturday 14th February. Both sides are then to withdraw their forces
to leave a ‘peace corridor’ between them.
Prisoners are to be exchanged and talks to begin about the degree of
autonomy that is to be accorded to East Ukraine .
The
Foreign Minister of the Kiev Government has already said publicly that the plan
will fail and, of course, his government has the power to make sure that it
does so – and to put the blame squarely onto the rebels!
The
only way to ensure that the peace plan has any chance of succeeding is for the cease-fire
to be rigorously policed by a considerable number of neutral observers from France and Germany . They might, at the same time, see if there is
evidence of the Russian Army Units that ‘the west’ seems to be quite certain
are now fighting in Eastern Ukraine . On the BBC tv news recently we have had
several reports from correspondents behind the rebel lines in Eastern
Ukraine . None of them has mentioned the presence of Russian
Military Units.
My
own guess is that the Russian government probably has given the rebels some
artillery because we have recently heard of the rebels shelling government army
positions. Previously it was the
government troops doing all the shelling.
I think too, that it is probable that Russian Army volunteers have been
granted leave to allow them to support their brethren across the frontier. Had the Russians sent an armoured division in
to help the rebels – as has been claimed by the Ukrainian President – I believe
that the Russian flag would now be hoisted over the Kiev Parliament!
I
believe that by far the best solution would be for both sides in Ukraine to be disarmed and for Ukraine ’s neutrality to be guaranteed by both
NATO and the Russian
Federation .
Further I believe that both the Russian and Ukrainian languages (are
they really very different?) should
be made official languages in Ukraine
and given equal status, and that Ukraine
should be given free trading access to both the EU and the Russian Federation .
Without the financial burden of defence
spending, with easy access to the world’s markets, and with the financial help
needed to rebuild their shattered country provided by their fellow Europeans
both in the EU and in Russia, Ukraine’s recovery could be spectacular, and a
model for other defence-burdened countries to follow. No – of course I know it
isn’t going to happen. It would spell
the end of civilisation as we know it.
Think of all the jobs that would be lost in the ‘defence industries’
(not to mention the loss of dividends to share holders!) if it did!
Late
News – I have just (13th February) heard that if the cease-fire to
begin at midnight on the 14th is broken, further sanctions will be imposed on Russia by the
EU. Don’t those blinkered idiots even consider the possibility that the
cease-fire might be broken by Ukrainian government forces?
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